Despite last week's defeat, New York Red Bulls have recently turned things around and pose more of a threat to visiting teams. However, New England have racked up 35 goals this season - the fourth-most throughout MLS - and should journey home with at least one point.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 56.35%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for New England Revolution had a probability of 19.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a New England Revolution win it was 0-1 (6.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
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