SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 75.53%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 8.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.68%) and 3-0 (10.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.46%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (3.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Toronto |
75.53% ( -0.16) | 15.68% ( 0.21) | 8.8% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 45.8% ( -1.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.36% ( -1.19) | 39.64% ( 1.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.01% ( -1.25) | 61.99% ( 1.25) |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.14% ( -0.33) | 8.86% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.67% ( -0.8) | 30.33% ( 0.79) |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.25% ( -0.92) | 49.75% ( 0.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.51% ( -0.66) | 84.48% ( 0.65) |
| Score Analysis |
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Toronto |
| 2-0 @ 12.94% ( 0.32) 1-0 @ 10.68% ( 0.43)3-0 @ 10.45% ( 0.1)2-1 @ 9.04% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 7.3% ( -0.12)4-0 @ 6.34% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 4.43% ( -0.14)5-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.11)5-1 @ 2.15% ( -0.1)4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.09)6-0 @ 1.24% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.78% Total : 75.51% | 1-1 @ 7.46% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.24)2-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.66% Total : 15.68% | 0-1 @ 3.08% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 1.07% ( 0)Other @ 2.04% Total : 8.8% |
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