SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 71.55%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 11.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.13%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (3.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York City FC | Draw | Toronto |
71.55% ( 0.23) | 17.19% ( -0.07) | 11.26% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 50.14% ( -0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.89% ( -0.17) | 39.11% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.56% ( -0.17) | 61.43% ( 0.17) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.34% ( 0.01) | 9.66% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.76% ( 0.03) | 32.23% ( -0.03) |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.5% ( -0.4) | 44.5% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.47% ( -0.32) | 80.53% ( 0.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| New York City FC | Draw | Toronto |
| 2-0 @ 11.74% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.08)2-1 @ 9.51% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 9.15% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 7.41% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 2.02% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.02)6-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.79% Total : 71.54% | 1-1 @ 8.13% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.91% Total : 17.19% | 0-1 @ 3.48% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.04% Total : 11.26% |
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