Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 41.43%. A win for Buxton had a probability of 33.09% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.82%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Buxton win was 1-0 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.
0.01) 
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