SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 43.77%. A win for Buxton had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Buxton win was 0-1 (8.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chorley | Draw | Buxton |
43.77% ( 0.48) | 26.29% ( -0.09) | 29.94% ( -0.4) |
| Both teams to score 51.51% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.14% ( 0.19) | 52.86% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.52% ( 0.16) | 74.48% ( -0.16) |
| Chorley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.99% ( 0.32) | 24% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.74% ( 0.46) | 58.25% ( -0.46) |
| Buxton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.78% ( -0.19) | 32.22% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.29% ( -0.22) | 68.71% ( 0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chorley | Draw | Buxton |
| 1-0 @ 11.03% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.92% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 7.87% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 4.24% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 3.75% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.4% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.51% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.34% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.71% Total : 43.77% | 1-1 @ 12.49% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 7.73% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 5.05% ( 0)3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.28% | 0-1 @ 8.76% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 7.08% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.69% Total : 29.94% |
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