Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 43.67%. A win for Gateshead had a probability of 31.13% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Gateshead win was 0-1 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
