Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 66.07%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for York City had a probability of 14.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.44%), while for a York City win it was 0-1 (4.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
