SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gloucester City win with a probability of 38.8%. A win for Chorley had a probability of 35.44% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gloucester City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Chorley win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gloucester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gloucester City | Draw | Chorley |
38.8% ( -0.22) | 25.75% ( 0.05) | 35.44% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 54.99% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.83% ( -0.17) | 49.16% ( 0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.77% ( -0.16) | 71.23% ( 0.16) |
| Gloucester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.1% ( -0.2) | 24.89% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.49% ( -0.28) | 59.51% ( 0.28) |
| Chorley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.22% ( 0.02) | 26.78% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.94% ( 0.03) | 62.06% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gloucester City | Draw | Chorley |
| 1-0 @ 9.27% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.49% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 6.45% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.94% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 2.99% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.59% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.37% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 0.9% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.77% Total : 38.8% | 1-1 @ 12.21% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.67% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 5.59% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.75% | 0-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 8.05% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 3.53% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0)Other @ 3.13% Total : 35.44% |
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