Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Curzon Ashton win with a probability of 44.02%. A win for Chorley had a probability of 30.68% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Curzon Ashton win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Chorley win was 0-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Curzon Ashton would win this match.
