Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 43.27%. A win for Gloucester City had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.88%) and 0-2 (7.75%). The likeliest Gloucester City win was 1-0 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chorley would win this match.
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