SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 52.34%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 23.72%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.71%) and 0-2 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-0 (6.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Arsenal |
23.72% ( -0.13) | 23.94% ( 0.12) | 52.34% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 53.81% ( -0.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.57% ( -0.61) | 47.43% ( 0.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.35% ( -0.57) | 69.64% ( 0.57) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.7% ( -0.45) | 34.3% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29% ( -0.48) | 71% ( 0.49) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.9% ( -0.22) | 18.09% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.97% ( -0.38) | 49.03% ( 0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Arsenal |
| 1-0 @ 6.64% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 6.07% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 3.55% ( 0)3-1 @ 2.17% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.85% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.17% Total : 23.72% | 1-1 @ 11.35% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 6.21% ( 0.16)2-2 @ 5.19% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.93% | 0-1 @ 10.6% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 9.71% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 9.07% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 5.53% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 5.17% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.96% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 2.36% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 2.21% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.46% Total : 52.33% |
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