SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 44.15%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 30.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.12%) and 0-2 (7.26%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 1-0 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal | Draw | Manchester City |
30.91% ( 0.17) | 24.94% ( 0.04) | 44.15% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 56.36% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.22% ( -0.09) | 46.78% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.97% ( -0.08) | 69.04% ( 0.09) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.55% ( 0.07) | 28.45% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.79% ( 0.08) | 64.21% ( -0.08) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.78% ( -0.13) | 21.22% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.89% ( -0.2) | 54.12% ( 0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal | Draw | Manchester City |
| 1-0 @ 7.59% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.39% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 4.77% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.1% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.4% ( 0)3-0 @ 2% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.69% Total : 30.91% | 1-1 @ 11.76% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 5.73% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.93% | 0-1 @ 9.36% ( -0) 1-2 @ 9.12% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 7.26% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 4.71% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 3.75% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.96% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.83% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.45% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.57% Total : 44.15% |
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