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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 39.94%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 34.66% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.66%) and 0-2 (6.53%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Arsenal |
34.66% ( 0.16) | 25.39% ( 0) | 39.94% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 56.1% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.31% ( 0.02) | 47.68% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.12% ( 0.02) | 69.88% ( -0.02) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.46% ( 0.1) | 26.54% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.26% ( 0.14) | 61.74% ( -0.14) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.36% ( -0.07) | 23.63% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.27% ( -0.11) | 57.72% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Arsenal |
| 1-0 @ 8.32% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.96% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 3.52% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.54% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.44% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.19% Total : 34.66% | 1-1 @ 12% 0-0 @ 6.27% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.74% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.39% | 0-1 @ 9.05% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.66% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 6.53% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 4.16% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.76% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1% ( -0)Other @ 2.02% Total : 39.94% |
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