Despite this being just the fourth Premier League game of the season, the stakes feel high with both managers desperately needing a win. Villa should make plenty of the running, but we feel that West Ham will be able to take advantage of the weaknesses in the home side's defence. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 36.96%. A win for West Ham United had a probability of 35.2% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.9%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest West Ham United win was 0-1 (10.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that West Ham United would win this match.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	West Ham United
36.96% ( -0.08)	27.85% ( 0.02)	35.2% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 48.24% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.31% (

-0.05)

57.69% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.56% (

-0.04)

78.45% (

0.04)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.01% (

-0.07)

29.99% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.89% (

-0.09)

66.11% (

0.09)

West Ham United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.91% (

0.01)

31.09% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.59% (

0.02)

67.42% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 36.96%

West Ham United 35.2%

Draw 27.84%

Aston Villa	Draw	West Ham United
1-0 @ 11.23% 2-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.76% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.17% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.71% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.85% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.37% Total : 36.96%	1-1 @ 13.11% 0-0 @ 9.33% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.84%	0-1 @ 10.89% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 7.66% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.36% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.98% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.8% ( -0) Other @ 3.02% Total : 35.2%