SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 44.28%. A win for Manchester City had a probability of 33.54% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.77%) and 3-1 (5.41%). The likeliest Manchester City win was 1-2 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Liverpool | Draw | Manchester City |
44.28% ( -0.75) | 22.17% ( 0.15) | 33.54% ( 0.59) |
| Both teams to score 67.66% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.52% ( -0.52) | 32.47% ( 0.51) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.88% ( -0.61) | 54.12% ( 0.6) |
| Liverpool Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.59% ( -0.47) | 15.41% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.77% ( -0.89) | 44.22% ( 0.88) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.98% ( 0.06) | 20.02% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.78% ( 0.09) | 52.21% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Liverpool | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 8.68% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 5.77% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 5.41% ( -0.11)2-0 @ 5.39% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 4.35% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 3.36% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 2.53% ( -0.09)4-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.06)4-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 0.95% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.14% Total : 44.28% | 1-1 @ 9.28% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 6.98% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.08% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.5% Total : 22.17% | 1-2 @ 7.46% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 4.96% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 4% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 3.99% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 3.74% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.14% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 1.61% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.51% ( 0)3-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.2% Total : 33.54% |
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