While Man City may feel physically and mentally fatigued following their midweek efforts in Europe, Guardiola will want his players to treat each of the last four league fixtures as a final and put all their remaining energy into claiming maximum points on Sunday as they bid to finish the weekend at the summit.
Newcastle have struggled for a number of years when facing City on the road, and although their form has improved since the arrival of Howe, we cannot look past the Citizens claiming maximum points even if they decide to rotate their squad from midweek.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 79.51%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 7.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.91%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 1-2 (2.36%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
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