SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 80.23%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 6.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.31%) and 1-0 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.19%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (2.29%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
80.23% ( -0.13) | 13.04% ( 0.08) | 6.73% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 45.48% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.53% ( -0.24) | 34.47% ( 0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.61% ( -0.27) | 56.39% ( 0.27) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.32% ( -0.08) | 6.68% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 75.25% ( -0.21) | 24.75% ( 0.2) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.73% ( -0.05) | 51.27% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.48% ( -0.03) | 85.52% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 2-0 @ 12.53% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 11.31% 1-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.07)2-1 @ 8.38% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 7.65% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 7.56% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 5.11% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 2.77% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.87% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.71% ( -0.01)6-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.23% Total : 80.22% | 1-1 @ 6.19% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 3.42% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 2.8% ( 0)Other @ 0.63% Total : 13.04% | 0-1 @ 2.29% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.38% Total : 6.73% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
