Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 46.06%. A win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 27.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.04%) and 0-2 (8.58%). The likeliest Arsenal Tula win was 1-0 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
