Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 56.11%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 20.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.85%) and 0-2 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.94%), while for an Akhmat Grozny win it was 1-0 (6.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.
