SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Rubin Kazan | 29 | -21 | 29 |
| 15 | FC Ufa | 29 | -12 | 27 |
| 16 | Arsenal Tula | 29 | -28 | 23 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Dynamo Moscow | 29 | 16 | 53 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 29 | 12 | 49 |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 29 | 9 | 47 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 53.1%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 22.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.69%) and 0-2 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 1-0 (6.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal Tula | Draw | FC Krasnodar |
22.77% ( 0.12) | 24.12% ( 0.24) | 53.1% ( -0.36) |
| Both teams to score 52.09% ( -0.61) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.83% ( -0.89) | 49.16% ( 0.89) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.77% ( -0.81) | 71.23% ( 0.81) |
| Arsenal Tula Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.88% ( -0.38) | 36.12% ( 0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.1% ( -0.39) | 72.9% ( 0.39) |
| FC Krasnodar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.54% ( -0.47) | 18.46% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.35% ( -0.8) | 49.64% ( 0.8) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal Tula | Draw | FC Krasnodar |
| 1-0 @ 6.79% ( 0.18) 2-1 @ 5.84% ( 0)2-0 @ 3.46% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 1.98% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.86% Total : 22.77% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 6.67% ( 0.24)2-2 @ 4.94% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.12% | 0-1 @ 11.26% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 9.69% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 9.52% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 5.46% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 5.36% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.08)1-4 @ 2.31% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 2.26% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.28% Total : 53.1% |
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