Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 53.92%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 23.82% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.5%) and 0-2 (8.12%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 2-1 (6.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.
