SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Zenit St Petersburg | 5 | 9 | 11 |
| 3 | Rostov | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | CSKA Moscow | 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Dynamo Moscow | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| 6 | Sochi | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | FC Krasnodar | 5 | 2 | 8 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 45.28%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 28.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (8.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rostov | Draw | Sochi |
45.28% ( 6.1) | 26.21% ( -0.19) | 28.5% ( -5.91) |
| Both teams to score 50.93% ( -1.76) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.77% ( -1.18) | 53.23% ( 1.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.21% ( -1.01) | 74.79% ( 1.01) |
| Rostov Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.56% ( 2.57) | 23.44% ( -2.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.56% ( 3.6) | 57.44% ( -3.6) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.52% ( -4.69) | 33.48% ( 4.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.88% ( -5.47) | 70.12% ( 5.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rostov | Draw | Sochi |
| 1-0 @ 11.38% ( 1.3) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0.58)2-0 @ 8.26% ( 1.47)3-1 @ 4.37% ( 0.58)3-0 @ 4% ( 0.95)3-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.31)4-0 @ 1.45% ( 0.42)Other @ 2.81% Total : 45.28% | 1-1 @ 12.45% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 7.85% ( 0.36)2-2 @ 4.94% ( -0.32)Other @ 0.96% Total : 26.2% | 0-1 @ 8.59% ( -0.74) 1-2 @ 6.82% ( -1)0-2 @ 4.7% ( -1.11)1-3 @ 2.49% ( -0.76)2-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.38)0-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.7)Other @ 2.41% Total : 28.5% |
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