SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 36.69%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 36.25% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.03%) and 0-2 (6.47%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 (10.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nizhny Novgorod | Draw | Sochi |
36.25% ( 0.13) | 27.06% ( -0.12) | 36.69% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 50.72% ( 0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.38% ( 0.46) | 54.62% ( -0.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.04% ( 0.38) | 75.95% ( -0.38) |
| Nizhny Novgorod Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.08% ( 0.3) | 28.92% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.2% ( 0.38) | 64.8% ( -0.38) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.35% ( 0.22) | 28.65% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.54% ( 0.27) | 64.46% ( -0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nizhny Novgorod | Draw | Sochi |
| 1-0 @ 10.27% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 7.97% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.3% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.02% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.6% Total : 36.24% | 1-1 @ 12.84% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 8.28% ( -0.15)2-2 @ 4.98% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.95% Total : 27.05% | 0-1 @ 10.35% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 8.03% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.47% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.35% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 2.7% 2-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.05% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.66% Total : 36.68% |
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