A closely-fought contest between two evenly-matched sides is set to be played out at the Caledonian Stadium, although the momentum is with Inverness who will be confident of securing their fifth successive home win when they face a struggling St Johnstone outfit.
Nevertheless, we feel that the visitors will do enough to claim a draw on Friday to keep the tie nicely poised heading into Monday's second leg.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inverness Caledonian Thistle win with a probability of 48.48%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for St Johnstone had a probability of 24.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inverness Caledonian Thistle win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.85%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.65%), while for a St Johnstone win it was 0-1 (9.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
