Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 46.26%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 27.07% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (8.78%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 0-1 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
