Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 37.64%. A win for Almeria had a probability of 33.81% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.81%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Almeria win was 0-1 (11.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
