Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 42.1%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 30.58% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 0-1 (9.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ponferradina would win this match.
