Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 50.1%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Burgos had a probability of 23.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.75%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for a Burgos win it was 0-1 (8.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ponferradina would win this match.
