Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Amorebieta win with a probability of 54.46%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Fuenlabrada had a probability of 20.09%.
The most likely scoreline for an Amorebieta win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.08%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%), while for a Fuenlabrada win it was 0-1 (7.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Amorebieta would win this match.
