Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 68.34%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Amorebieta had a probability of 12.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.59%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.24%), while for an Amorebieta win it was 0-1 (4.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.
