Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Amorebieta win with a probability of 38.71%. A win for Mirandes had a probability of 33.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Amorebieta win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.22%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Mirandes win was 0-1 (10.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Amorebieta in this match.
