Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eibar win with a probability of 38.45%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 32.98% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eibar win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.89%) and 0-2 (7.32%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 1-0 (11.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
