Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 49.53%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 24.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.42%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.25%), while for a Lugo win it was 0-1 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ponferradina would win this match.
