Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fuenlabrada win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Ponferradina had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fuenlabrada win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest Ponferradina win was 0-1 (9.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
