Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 66.19%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 13.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.81%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for a Lugo win it was 0-1 (4.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Valladolid would win this match.
