Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 60.93%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Ponferradina had a probability of 17.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.39%), while for a Ponferradina win it was 0-1 (5.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Valladolid would win this match.
