Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 61.59%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Ponferradina had a probability of 16.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for a Ponferradina win it was 0-1 (5.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.
