Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 42.94%. A win for Crotone had a probability of 32.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.51%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Crotone win was 2-1 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.
