Juventus are one of two teams, along with leaders Napoil, to have conceded the fewest goals in the second half of Serie A matches this season (eight), while Roma have only conceded nine, so both sides know how to shut up shop.
It is sure to be a close-fought affair in the capital, but more misery for Mourinho could be in store, as Juve are masters of nicking a lead and doggedly preserving their advantage until the last whistle.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 41.63%. A win for Juventus had a probability of 30.52% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Juventus win was 0-1 (10.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Roma in this match.
-0.14) 
0.02) 
