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Champions League | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
May 10, 2023 at 8pm UK
San Siro
IL

AC Milan
0 - 2
Inter Milan


Krunic (45+1'), Tomori (64')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Dzeko (8'), Mkhitaryan (11')
Mkhitaryan (45+1')

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 42.43%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 29.67% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-0 (10.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawInter Milan
29.67% (0.015000000000001 0.02) 27.89% (0.342 0.34) 42.43% (-0.357 -0.36)
Both teams to score 46.68% (-0.95 -0.95)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.02% (-1.208 -1.21)58.97% (1.208 1.21)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.55% (-0.944 -0.94)79.45% (0.94399999999999 0.94)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.36% (-0.634 -0.63)35.64% (0.634 0.63)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.59% (-0.661 -0.66)72.41% (0.66000000000001 0.66)
Inter Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.53% (-0.755 -0.75)27.47% (0.754 0.75)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.03% (-0.985 -0.98)62.96% (0.984 0.98)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 29.67%
    Inter Milan 42.43%
    Draw 27.89%
AC MilanDrawInter Milan
1-0 @ 10.1% (0.284 0.28)
2-1 @ 6.73% (-0.068000000000001 -0.07)
2-0 @ 5.21% (0.059 0.06)
3-1 @ 2.32% (-0.064 -0.06)
3-0 @ 1.79% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.5% (-0.074 -0.07)
Other @ 2.02%
Total : 29.67%
1-1 @ 13.05% (0.1 0.1)
0-0 @ 9.79% (0.439 0.44)
2-2 @ 4.35% (-0.138 -0.14)
Other @ 0.7%
Total : 27.89%
0-1 @ 12.64% (0.3 0.3)
1-2 @ 8.43% (-0.12 -0.12)
0-2 @ 8.17% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
1-3 @ 3.63% (-0.131 -0.13)
0-3 @ 3.52% (-0.065 -0.07)
2-3 @ 1.87% (-0.102 -0.1)
1-4 @ 1.17% (-0.068 -0.07)
0-4 @ 1.14% (-0.046 -0.05)
Other @ 1.85%
Total : 42.43%

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Form Guide
Last Game: AC Milan 2-0 Lazio
Saturday, May 6 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 1-1 Cremonese
Wednesday, May 3 at 8pm in Serie A
Last Game: Roma 1-1 AC Milan
Saturday, April 29 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 2-0 Lecce
Sunday, April 23 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: Napoli 1-1 AC Milan
Tuesday, April 18 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Bologna 1-1 AC Milan
Saturday, April 15 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: Roma 0-2 Inter Milan
Saturday, May 6 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: Hellas Verona 0-6 Inter Milan
Wednesday, May 3 at 8pm in Serie A
Last Game: Inter Milan 3-1 Lazio
Sunday, April 30 at 11.30am in Serie A
Last Game: Inter Milan 1-0 Juventus
Wednesday, April 26 at 8pm in Coppa Italia
Last Game: Empoli 0-3 Inter Milan
Sunday, April 23 at 11.30am in Serie A
Last Game: Inter Milan 3-3 Benfica
Wednesday, April 19 at 8pm in Champions League


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