Only Salernitana and Cagliari have registered fewer clean sheets than Venezia and Sassuolo (both three) in Serie A this season, so a goalless draw is certainly not on the cards at the Penzo.
Despite shifting shape and personnel, the home side have failed to find a method which keeps the back door shut and are far less prolific at the other end. In addition to their modest home record to date, that all adds up to a loss for the Lagunari.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 47.71%. A win for Venezia had a probability of 29.81% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.85%) and 0-2 (6.39%). The likeliest Venezia win was 2-1 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sassuolo would win this match.
