Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 49.81%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Ascoli had a probability of 23.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.75%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.36%), while for an Ascoli win it was 0-1 (8.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.
-0.04) 
0.09) 
