Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 42.49%. A draw had a probability of 29.3% and a win for Bari had a probability of 28.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 2-1 (7.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.24%), while for a Bari win it was 0-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Parma would win this match.
-0.25) 
0.26) 
