Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 39.52%. A win for Cittadella had a probability of 34.07% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Cittadella win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
