Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Gallen win with a probability of 50.58%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 27.19% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Gallen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.26%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Gallen would win this match.
