Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 33.52% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.61%) and 0-2 (6.24%). The likeliest Lugano win was 2-1 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.
