SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 43.4%. A win for Luzern had a probability of 32.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.48%) and 2-0 (6.27%). The likeliest Luzern win was 1-2 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Basel | Draw | Luzern |
43.4% ( 0.11) | 23.63% ( -0.03) | 32.96% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 61.89% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.06% ( 0.11) | 39.93% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.7% ( 0.11) | 62.29% ( -0.11) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.27% ( 0.09) | 18.73% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.89% ( 0.15) | 50.1% ( -0.15) |
| Luzern Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.15% ( 0) | 23.85% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.96% ( 0) | 58.03% |
| Score Analysis |
| Basel | Draw | Luzern |
| 2-1 @ 8.98% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.48% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.27% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.02% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.6% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.1% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.51% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.47% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.49% Total : 43.4% | 1-1 @ 10.72% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.47% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.63% | 1-2 @ 7.69% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.4% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.67% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.08% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.32% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.1% ( 0)Other @ 2.93% Total : 32.97% |
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