SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 54.17%. A win for FC Winterthur had a probability of 23.17% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.27%) and 0-2 (8.61%). The likeliest FC Winterthur win was 2-1 (6.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Winterthur | Draw | Basel |
23.17% ( 0.09) | 22.65% ( 0.1) | 54.17% ( -0.19) |
| Both teams to score 57.4% ( -0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.64% ( -0.34) | 42.36% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.24% ( -0.34) | 64.76% ( 0.34) |
| FC Winterthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68% ( -0.11) | 32% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.54% ( -0.12) | 68.45% ( 0.12) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.41% ( -0.19) | 15.59% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.43% ( -0.35) | 44.56% ( 0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Winterthur | Draw | Basel |
| 2-1 @ 6.02% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 5.68% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 3.24% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 2.29% 3-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.59% Total : 23.17% | 1-1 @ 10.56% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.59% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.99% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.19% Total : 22.65% | 1-2 @ 9.82% ( -0) 0-1 @ 9.27% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 8.61% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 6.08% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 5.34% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3.47% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 2.83% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 2.48% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.61% ( -0.03)1-5 @ 1.05% ( -0.02)0-5 @ 0.92% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.7% Total : 54.17% |
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