Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 41.86%. A win for Grasshopper Zurich had a probability of 35.14% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.44%) and 0-2 (5.55%). The likeliest Grasshopper Zurich win was 2-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.
