Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 38.56%. A win for Basel had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.93%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Basel win was 0-1 (11.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
